The spot price of gold against the US dollar (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $4,610.68 on the daily timeframe, facing clear downward pressure and falling below all major trend indicators, according to the daily chart analysis using the WarrenAI chart analysis tool from InvestingPro. The crucial question now is: will the $4,600 support hold, or will we witness a renewed decline towards the March lows?
Danger zone: Breaking of critical support
Gold has entered a period of sharp fluctuations around $4,600, below all major moving averages (20 and 50 days), while remaining below the Ichimoku cloud and the supertrend zone. The last attempt to rise failed at $4,772.59 (April 22, 2026), confirming the strength of sellers in this area.
MACD indicator: Shows a possible bullish crossover, which means that the selling momentum is starting to lose strength, but confirmation has not yet been achieved.
Price action: Any clear break below $4,600 would likely lead to a visit to the $4,434 levels (61.8% Fibonacci retracement and March lows).
Trading volume: Weak during the current volatility, reflecting a state of anticipation.
Why is this working?: The price is in a clear descending channel with strong resistance at the 20-day moving average and the Ichimoku cloud. Every attempt to rise is met with strong selling pressure.
The main risk: A sudden positive MACD crossover could trigger a rapid price rebound and test the $4,800 resistance.
Scenario invalidation: A daily close above $4,935 (supertrend) invalidates the bearish scenario.
No trading zone
The $4,600–$4,780 range is considered an unattractive area of fluctuation: price movement is erratic, and technical signals are conflicting. It is preferable to wait for a clear breakout of support or resistance.
Technical lessons: Why are all these signals important?
The Ichimoku cloud: It reflects the overall market trend, and staying below it means that large traders are still sellers.
Fibonacci 61.8% ($4,434): Considered a classic retracement zone in financial markets.
R:R (Risk-Reward Ratio): Each major target provides an R:R higher than 2:1—that is, a risk of one dollar for the potential gain of two dollars or more.
Management: Upon achieving the first goal, it is advisable to move the stop loss to the breakeven point, and follow a trailing stop after the second goal.
Market Summary: Where is gold headed?
Current trend: Downward with the possibility of the decline extending towards $4,434, unless the market is surprised by a strong bullish MACD crossover.
Watch: Any daily close below $4,600 or above $4,935 will determine the next direction.
The lesson: In bear markets, any weak rebound is often an upward trap to attract buyers before the market resumes its downward trend.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
