Gold prices were relatively stable on Thursday, as investors awaited US inflation data for clues as to whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at its meeting scheduled for next week.
High Treasury yields and renewed tensions in the Middle East remain near-term pressures, while a weaker dollar and long-term demand for the yellow metal continue to support it.
At 11:43 PM (Saudi Arabia time), XAU/USD fell 0.1% to $4,398.53 per ounce, while gold futures declined 0.4% to $4,442.00. XAG/USD was steady at $67.28 per ounce, while XPT/USD dropped 0.6% to $1,888.23. The US dollar index remained unchanged at 98.81.
Treasury yields and Middle East tensions keep pressure on gold.
Gold has traded in a relatively narrow range around the $4,400 level in recent weeks, after rebounding from a low near $4,000 in July.
Investors continued to weigh the metal's long-term appeal as a hedge in investment portfolios against short-term pressures stemming from rising bond yields and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose after the latest government plan to purchase up to $6 billion in long-term debt failed to impact the bond market. It's worth noting that higher yields put pressure on gold, which does not offer interest.
Oil prices also remain a concern, with Brent crude reaching $100.00 a barrel for the first time since July.
The war is entering its seventh month, and Iran has warned that it is prepared for a more intense confrontation if the United States continues its attacks on its territory and infrastructure.
The PPI and CPI indices are under scrutiny in light of the Fed's forecasts.
Markets are now focused on Thursday's US Producer Price Index and Friday's Consumer Price Index, ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting. Swaps markets are pricing in a roughly 65% probability of an interest rate hike this month.
Tony Sycamore, senior market analyst at IG, said that gold ended last night's trading higher at around $4,402, supported by a weaker dollar despite a sharp rise in US bond yields.
Sycamore noted that gold is still below its 200-day moving average at approximately $4,537, stressing that the metal needs to reclaim this level to confirm the end of the downward trend from the peak of $4,697 and the resumption of the broader upward trend.
Investor appetite also strengthened, with global gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracting inflows of $18 billion in August, the second-largest monthly inflow on record, according to the World Gold Council. Holdings rose by 121 tons to a record high of 4,189 tons, while assets under management jumped 16% to $615 billion.
Technical Summary
XAU/USD is moving on the hourly chart within a range of approximately 4,382 to 4,440 . The price is above the key moving averages, but its proximity to the 4,440 resistance level limits the potential for further gains.
First resistance: 4,440.94
Next resistance: 4,489.83
First support: 4,408.50–4,398.33
Pivot support: 4,382.79
Farthest bottom: 4,282.67
Current price: $4,415.37, up 0.30% , as of September 10, 9:25 AM Saudi time.
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Momentum indicators
Positive signal: The price is above the 200-period SMA at 4,413.91 , and the MACD at 6.15 is above the signal line at 4.20 . This supports a short-term upward move.
However, the trend is weak: the ADX is at 12.15 , a reading that suggests a sideways market rather than a strong trend. Therefore, a quick break above 4,440 could turn into a reversal.
Bollinger Bands are narrowing the gap: the upper limit is near 4,427.64 , meaning the price is close to a short-term expansion zone. —Why it matters: A rally needs a clear close, not just a touch of resistance.
Critical levels
Above 4,440.94: Hourly close supports a move towards 4,489.83 , then approximately 4,538.
Between 4,410 and 4,430: a fluctuating zone; signals in this area are less reliable.
Below 4,398.33: The upward momentum weakens and opens the way towards 4,382.79 .
Below 4,382.79: The risk widens towards 4,339, then the previous low at 4,282.67 .
Trading scenarios
What changes the image
In favor of buyers: an hourly close above 4,440.94 with widening MACD momentum. This would then turn resistance into a potential support test.
In favor of sellers: The price failed at 4,440, then broke 4,398.33 . The signal becomes clearer below 4,382.79 .
The main risk: The last candle is still forming, having traded between 4,411.01 and 4,434.13 . Therefore, the current pullback is not a confirmed bearish signal until the candle closes.
The current reading is neutral with a slight upward bias , not a fully established uptrend. The key level is 4,440.94 ; above this level, the probability of targeting 4,489.83 improves, while a break below 4,398.33 remains a warning sign of a potential price drop to 4,382.79. The signal's strength improves outside the swing zone, not within it.
