Following the historic surge in gold prices last year, which has continued to climb since the beginning of this year, Bank of America predicts that the price of an ounce of gold will reach $6,000 by mid-2026.
“History is no guide to the future,” wrote Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett in a note to clients, “but gold’s average rise during four bullish cycles has been around 300% in 43 months, which means gold could reach $6,000 by spring.”
Hartnett predicted that the price of gold would reach $6,000 an ounce by spring, which would raise its price by more than 20% above its current historical highs.
The spot price of gold rose by 0.8% on Friday, January 23, to $4,976.49 an ounce.
His forecast reflects growing optimism about gold, supported by central bank purchases, tightening supply dynamics, and investors seeking protection from currency risks, although this $6,000 level is well above most prevailing expectations and represents a strong but possible bullish scenario.
On January 5, Michael Widmer, head of metals research at Bank of America, stated that gold would remain a key asset in investors' portfolios this year.
Widmer wrote: “Gold continues to stand out as a hedge and a source of additional returns. Bank of America believes that tighter market conditions and strong earnings sensitivity make gold a key hedge and a potential driver of returns in 2026.”
Bank of America's 2026 forecast is based on its expectation of declining supply and rising costs in the gold sector. Widmer predicts that the 13 major gold mining companies in North America will produce 19.2 million ounces this year, a 2% decrease from 2025, adding that most market production forecasts are overly optimistic.
He also predicted a significant increase in producer profitability, with total earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization expected to rise by 41% to approximately US$65 billion in 2026.
At that time, Bank of America stated that it expected the average price of gold to reach US$4,538 per ounce in real terms during 2026, while silver, platinum and palladium prices were also expected to rise, reflecting the bank's positive outlook on precious metals in general.
Widmer said silver could attract investors willing to take higher risks for additional gains, noting that the current gold-to-silver ratio of about 59 suggests silver is still capable of outperforming gold.
He cited the historical low for the ratio, 32 in 2011, as an indication that the price of silver could reach US$135, while its lowest level in 1980, 14, suggests that the price of silver could reach US$309 per ounce.
