Jesse Colombo, an independent precious metals analyst and founder of the BubbleBubble report, believes that gold and silver are testing critical support levels, and that a decisive break below them could lead to a widespread sell-off in precious metals, according to an interview published by Kitco. He says Friday's move is unusual because it is not linked to a surge in the dollar, but rather coincides with a decline in Treasury yields. Gold futures (December, GCZ6) closed at $3,884.90, according to WarrenAI analysis, below the lower end of the $3,900-$4,000 range that Colombo monitors, while spot gold closed at around $3,875 (-3.64% on the day).
What attracts Colombo?
Unconventional movement: He does not see a clear jump in the dollar, while Treasury and bond yields are generally declining, and oil rose by about 2%-2.5% during the day, a rise which, in his opinion, is not commensurate with the size of the fall in gold.
Technical factor: There is believed to be a clear technical aspect, with concerns about avoiding risks ahead of the midterm elections and liquidating positions in technology stocks.
Geopolitical concern: This indicates apprehension about an escalation in the Iranian issue, prompting some traders to sell first and ask questions later.
Self-feeding momentum: warns that negative sentiment has created a cumulative downward momentum that could soon lead to capitulation in the market.
Gold: Range 3,900-4,000 and target 3,500
Colombo says the $3,900-$4,000 range in Comex futures has been the support floor he's been watching, formed exactly a year ago in October and November 2025, and that gold was testing it but hadn't broken it yet at the time of speaking. He added that he would be monitoring Friday's close and the start of the new week, saying, We're really at a critical level. If gold closes below it on strong volume, perhaps next week, the next support he's watching is near $3,500, but he emphasizes that he's not saying gold will reach it; it's simply the next level to watch if the current support fails.
Silver: Range 45-55 and barrier 50
The 45-55 range in Comex contracts: also formed in October and November a year ago, and is the last area where silver held steady before the near-vertical rise in late 2025 and early 2026.
The $50 barrier: He sees it as having played a pivotal role since 1980 (the peak of the bull run in the seventies) and then in 2011; silver surpassed it in November 2025 and considered that a sign of a multi-year breakout.
Current reading: Silver is approaching 50 from the top, making this level a new support (not literally at 50, but in a range around it). A quick sell-off below this level is possible; if it holds, all is well, but if it breaks, the focus will shift to the next support level. The current bet is on this support holding.
Where are the prices now and how do they intersect with other levels?
Spot gold: around 3,875.20 (-3.64% daily, -3.01% weekly and -6.78% monthly), i.e. below 3,900 by about 0.64% and below 4,000 by about 3.2%.
Silver: Around $49.075 (-0.42% in the last reading after falling about 6% during the day), that is, close to 50 (1.9% below it) and about 8.3% above 45.
WarrenAI: Pivot 3,926.10 and targets 3,800 and 3,720. The bearish scenario is only weakened by a recovery to 4,008.
WarrenAI (Sunday, November 1 reading): It places support at 3,870.37 then 3,819.51, and breaking the latter opens 3,750 then 3,500, meaning that the target of 3,500 crosses the Colombo level, and a new offer at 3,944-3,960 replaces the previous support zone; and the analysis sees gold as oversold but falling with strong momentum.
Other views: Bank of America sees a possible bottom at 3,750, and Sucden Financial sees a test of 3,900 before the December Fed, then a recovery to 4,200-4,300 by mid-January.
The futures contract (GCZ6) closed at $3,884.90 (about $15 below $3,900), after hitting a session low of $3,879.30 according to WarrenAI, and is trading at a premium of about $10 to the spot price. This fulfills Colombo's condition of closing below the range. However, the second condition, strong volume, is not yet available, so the breakout cannot be considered confirmed by Colombo's criteria.
WarrenAI on contracts: Sees that gold broke the 3,955-3,976 base but entered a strong support zone between 3,840 and 3,873 (October 2025 low, September 2025 close and 78.6% correction), and that breaking 3,840 opens 3,700 then 3,506 (which is close to 3,500 at Colombo), and that a return above 3,976 makes the current break closer to a “bear trap”.
