The United States is anticipating a busy week of labor market data, headlined by the key monthly employment report to be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday.
Analysts expect the report to show that job creation more than doubled in October, reaching 65,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. These results would likely keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates again in the coming months to combat inflation.
Further labor market data due next week may reinforce the picture of stability. A monthly jobless claims report, due Tuesday, is expected to show a slight increase in job openings in September, while economists will also be scrutinizing layoff and voluntary resignation figures. Weekly unemployment claims, due Thursday, are expected to remain near their lowest levels in decades.
Bloomberg Economics experts' opinion:
Anna Wong, Andrew Saker, and Eliza Wenger stated that while the unemployment rate remains stable, job losses are gradually increasing, but unemployment benefit claims do not yet indicate a surge in mass layoffs. The underlying picture is that the labor market, characterized by slow hiring and layoffs, is losing momentum but has not yet collapsed.
The US economic agenda is completed with manufacturing data on Monday, which is expected to show continued strength in factory activity during October, and trade data on Wednesday, which is likely to confirm that AI-related imports continued to widen the trade deficit last month.
Also due on Thursday is the productivity report, which analysts predict will show a 2.6% increase during the third quarter, the largest increase in a year.
Moving north, Canada also releases jobs data on Friday. Economists expect the unemployment rate to have held steady at around 6.5% in October, after Canada lost 68,300 jobs the previous month, indicating a weak labor market.
Statistics Canada will also provide the first full-month assessment of international trade performance since the collapse of talks between the United States and Canada.
A day earlier, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne will announce the federal government's budget, which aims to stimulate economic growth amid the ongoing trade dispute with the United States. The government is expected to use the additional revenue generated by higher oil prices to fund tax measures that encourage investment, along with programs designed to improve affordability.
The government deliberately scheduled the announcement of the budget, entitled Masters of Our Destiny, after the US midterm elections.
