Barclays Bank has maintained its forecast for the average price of Brent crude in 2026 at $100 per barrel, despite the risk advantage over upside factors, according to a recent note from the bank.
In trading on Friday morning, Brent crude futures reached around $105 a barrel amid investor doubts about the prospects for progress in talks between the United States and Iran, with the strategic Strait of Hormuz remaining closed.
Before the war, approximately 20 percent of the world's energy supply passed through the strait. The war resulted in the loss of 14 million barrels per day of oil, roughly 14 percent of global supply, from suppliers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait.
The bank said inventory trends point to a deficit of six to eight million barrels per day, with U.S. inventories nearing their lowest level since 2020.
He added that the level of inventories at the starting point, in the event that the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened today, will still be about 20 million barrels lower than the lowest level in recent history, even in the most optimistic scenarios.
The bank described demand as still being largely robust and resilient, and said that any weakness in industrial-related uses would recover strongly if supplies quickly returned to normal levels.
