The fall of the US dollar in the policy spiral

losses are still continuing, and the red color refuses to be absent from the scene of the US dollar, which reinforces the belief that the world's largest currency has entered a long-term downtrend, amid a pessimistic outlook by major investment banks. >

The lowest level in two and a half years, a title linked to the US currency more than once in recent days, with the improvement in risk appetite and increasing pressure on the currency, which is usually demanded in times of political and economic uncertainty to exercise its traditional role as a haven for investors And the savers, and this is what we saw in an amazing rise during the height of the Corona virus outbreak in March, but now the vaccine has come to change everything.

The main dollar index, which measures the performance of the US currency against 6 major currencies, fell to the lowest level of 91 points, for the first time since April 2018, which is reflected in the euro, which carries a weight of nearly 60% of this index, to rise to the highest level in Two and a half years, exceeding $ 1.21.

(Dollar performance since the beginning of this year )

There is a note worthy of attention that came from the Soviet data, that the euro was the most used currency for global payments last month, at about 37.82%, marking the first time since February 2013

And with the magnitude of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures by governments and central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, which pushed interest rates to record low levels; To face the repercussions of the pandemic, which made investors ignore the dollar in favor of more profitable assets, and since early last month, which was the worst for the dollar since July, pressure has accumulated on the green paper as one of the safe havens, as hopes have increased for the dispersion of the Corona cloud, which led to optimism about an economic recovery It encourages the search for more risky bets, which is what the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has confirmed that the global economy will return to pre-epidemic levels by the end of next year.

Positive developments quickly followed with regard to several vaccines with very high efficacy to treat the Corona virus that could become widely available next year. Indeed, the United Kingdom has already agreed as the first country to use the Pfizer and Biontech vaccine starting next week, In a step that promises that we are at the beginning of the end of the dark tunnel of epidemic.

This prompted major banks such as Citigroup to expect further declines in the dollar in 2021 by about 20%, if vaccines were distributed and the epidemic declined on a large scale.

The dilemma lies in whether the global economy recovers, the US economy will force the Federal Reserve to provide incentives to the economy before considering increasing interest rates due to its severe damage from the consequences of the Corona epidemic, which is in an increasing cycle in anticipation ...