The Bitcoin options market reflects a growing trend among traders to target a return of the price to the $100,000 level, driven by growing optimism that investors will return to digital assets following the collapse that hit the cryptocurrency market in the fourth quarter.
Open interest data, i.e., the number of outstanding contracts, shows a clear concentration in Bitcoin options contracts expiring on January 30 at a strike price of $100,000. The total nominal value of these contracts is more than double that of the second most popular contracts, put options at $80,000 with the same expiration date, according to data from Coinbase Global's Debit platform.
Analysts in the over-the-counter (OTC) market believe that while the size of these positions is not enormous, it carries a clear directional implication and reinforces the growing interest in the $100,000 level that emerged last week. The decline in the premium for hedge contracts also suggests that the market is no longer anticipating worst-case scenarios, indicating a relative stabilization of expectations.
With the options market focused on Bitcoin's return to $100,000 and increased ETF inflows, analyzing the shift in market sentiment after the downward phase becomes crucial.
Mood shift after the sharp decline
This shift represents a remarkable turn compared to the panic that gripped the market in late 2025, when heavy selling in the spot market coincided with a sharp rise in the cost of short contracts, reflecting strong fears of further decline.
During Tuesday's trading, Bitcoin's price fluctuated between gains and losses, settling near $93,300 by 9:00 AM London time. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization fell by 24% during the fourth quarter, ending last year at $87,648, while its last trading price above $100,000 was in mid-November.
The signs of a cautious recovery encouraged investors to return to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with U.S. spot funds recording inflows of $697 million in a single day, the highest level since October 7, according to Bloomberg data.
Compensatory flows and fading effects of the shock
These inflows came after a period of large capital outflows following the market crash in early October, when nearly $19 billion in bullish bets were wiped out in a single day, dealing a severe blow to investor confidence.
Bitcoin's surge coincided with a broader market rally, including record-breaking jumps in gold prices and a stock market rebound fueled by the technology sector. Derivatives experts believe this context creates favorable opportunities to buy Bitcoin bullish options contracts extending to 2026, given the market's perception that Bitcoin still underperforms compared to precious metals.
Over the past few months, the cryptocurrency has attempted to break through important technical levels several times, but each time it has faced rapid correction waves accompanied by large liquidations in both directions, as a result of continuous selling pressure and the weak recovery of the derivatives market, which usually injects speculative liquidity that boosts price movements.
The road to 100,000: between testing and penetration
Some trading platform executives believe that a retest of the $100,000-$106,000 range remains possible, even in a cautious market environment, considering this a common behavior during corrective phases. However, according to this view, a genuine return to bullish momentum requires Bitcoin to surpass and hold above $106,000 on a weekly basis, paving the way for a new attempt to reach all-time highs.
The positioning of options contracts suggests a potential rapid rise through the $90,000 range, with a possible cooling-off point near the $105,000 level, reflecting a mix of cautious optimism and anticipation, waiting to see whether this recovery will take hold or remain just a temporary bounce.
