When the sky gets cold, one spark of lightning suffices to start the storm ... This is how Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, described the global economic climate today at the opening of the seventh edition of the World Summit of Governments. In Dubai ... Lagarde refuted the causes of the potential economic storm by the so-called four clouds, which are ...

First ... the effects of trade wars
Second ... the certainty count of the prefix file
Third ... China's economic growth slows
Fourth ... the risks of financial tightening Far from the repeated narratives in dealing with the ordinary details of the four clouds, we have to stop before Lagarde’s expression of a spark of lightning and ask what is the common factor between the four clouds that plays a spark Lightning causing that potential economic storm ?! ... is Trump? ... perhaps.

The beginning in defining the action of the storm is that it is of unknown intent and leaves losses with all that it passes and everyone is waiting for its end to deal with its last results ... and if we pull that image On the actions of US President Donald Trump in his dealings with the four clouds of trade wars, Brexit, China's growth and financial hardship, we find that the man is an effective player in it ... he knows how to strike and is not over ...

Trade wars may be the overarching title of the remaining three clouds, no matter how Trump's national justifications for restoring America's glory from a point of view, and whatever the strength of the US economy that bears its storms, However, it is wise to balance things is not to provoke more than one trade war at the same time on more than one open front that has broad capabilities to resist and maneuver and turn the table as well ... The global economic screens are now on the frequencies of the US trade war against China and against the European Union Against India soon The deadline for the commercial armistice between the American and Chinese sides is nearing the end of the first of next March and did not result in any clear statement that reflects the size of the big differences behind the scenes ... Image The hardest of answers aim at several scenarios of gradual intensity in everyone’s faces, which we consider as follows: -

First ... If the expected failure to come out with a real deal is achieved, will Trump quickly do tariffs of around 25% of all Chinese imports by about $ 500 billion ?! ...

It is a very dark scenario that has negative initial effects on inflation, interest, and employment rates in the United States and China together ... and behind them is the world that will actually live in a recession. After its ghost was in economic reports only, and consequently, the debts of emerging markets in particular, which amount to more than 50% of the global GDP, have been exacerbated ...

And most importantly, what is China's reaction then ?! ... China is the largest investor in US treasury bonds with 7.5% about $ 1.2 trillion of the total value of US bonds amounting to $ 16 trillion foreign investment warehouse in the United States ... This may be the main reason to exclude the disaster scenario.

Second ... the script ...