The French central bank predicts that the country will lose a million jobs this year, with a record unemployment rate of 11.8% in the first half of 2021.
According to Arabia Net, the French economy is expected to decline by about 10% this year despite a gradual resumption of activity as of the third quarter, according to estimates published on Tuesday by the French Central Bank, which It is considered that the gross domestic product will not return to its pre-crisis level before mid-2022.
These expectations are close to those of the government, which expects a recession of 11% this year.
And after the strong shock caused by the isolation measures, especially with the GDP decrease by 15% in the second quarter, the economy is expected to improve in 2021 by 7% and then by 4% in 2022 According to the expectations of the Central Bank.
The bank added that this significant significant improvement will not allow a return to the level of end-of-2019 activity before mid-2022.
This scenario is based on the continued outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic but is under control and an economy adapting to health restrictions.
According to the central bank, its expectations remain subject to many ambiguous matters, and arbitration between saving and consumption will be necessary for the pace of recovery.
"Unemployment and an uncertain global climate will likely continue to influence buying behavior," he added.
It is expected that the level of household savings will exceed 22% this year and that consumption will decrease by 9.3%.
With weak margins and sluggish activity, institutions will reduce their investments by 23.3%.
These difficulties will cause a significant reduction in employment, but in a gradual manner.
The unemployment rate may reach more than 10% at the end of 2020 to 11.5% in the middle of 2021, a level that transcends historical precedents, and the year 2022 must wait for it to decline to 9,7% .
The bank assured that countries and public administrations will bear the brunt of the crisis’s shock, even if household revenues decline due to these economic difficulties.
At the price level, the bank expects downward pressure with inflation that may become negative at the end of 2022 mainly due to energy prices and then remain below 1% until the end of 2022. <.. .
