special report
Team preparation
======== It remains about two weeks to complete the ninety-day truce regarding the trade war between the United States of America and China, but what happens after the first of next March ?!
>The picture appears difficult to answer after three rounds of arduous trade negotiations on both sides, to float several scenarios of intensity in front of everyone, we consider it as follows: - First, the catastrophic scenario ... If the expected failure to come out with a real agreement between the two sides is achieved, will Trump quickly do tariffs of about 25% on all Chinese imports by about 500? $ 1 billion?!
It is a very dark scenario that has negative initial effects on inflation, interest, and employment rates in the United States and China together ... and from behind them is the world that will actually live in a recession. After its ghost was in economic reports only, consequently, the debts of emerging markets in particular, which amount to more than 50% of the global GDP, have been exacerbated.
And most importantly, what is China's reaction then ?! ... China is the largest investor in US treasury bonds with 7.5% about $ 1.2 trillion of the total value of US bonds amounting to $ 16 trillion foreign investment warehouse in the United States ... This may be the main reason to exclude the disaster scenario
Second, the gray scenario .... which is appropriate for the current situation to exit from the first truce without a commercial agreement, with fixing tariffs at the 10% barrier between the two sides, and with Repeat the truce experience again in order to reach partial solutions to move the river water again, and gradually drag China to achieve the expectations of the World Bank by slowing its growth to 4.9% by 2020 ... and perhaps this trend helps the markets temporarily to fidget from the impact and pricing of the trade war Up-to-date
Third, the scenario of a partial partial solution ... Are we seeing this scenario that is consistent with Trump's unwarranted optimism to reach an agreement with China despite the complexities of the current details ?! ... it may happen, but it will surely be partly carries a short-term and unconvincing trade optimism for the markets in the medium term, as it opens the door to other future scenes of trade war between the two sides to revolve the global economy in a vicious circle until the expectations of slowing growth and widening trade deficits are confirmed. The US favors China
Here we have a pause ... The second gray and sudden third scenarios Trump can use to calm the democratic opposition against him for his electoral interests in 2020, as China can from During which they activate commercial maneuver games more broadly to modify some situations on the ground, from restoring the continuation of growth after ...
