Federal Reserve policymakers agreed last month that monetary policy should remain tight for some time in order to continue to cool inflation.
Uncertainty about the path of the US economy, including difficulty in assessing the state of financial markets, potential shocks to oil prices, and the impact of labor union strikes, pushed Federal Reserve officials into a cautious stance at their meeting last month, where debate continued over whether there is a need to... To further raise interest rates, according to the minutes of the meeting of last September 19-20, which were published on Wednesday.
A majority of members felt that one more interest rate increase at a future meeting was likely to be appropriate, while some felt that it was likely that no further increases would be justified.
The minutes of the meeting showed that the vast majority of members felt that the future course of the economy remained highly uncertain.
He also noted that all members of the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest rates, agreed that they could proceed with caution in future decisions, which will depend on incoming data rather than any predetermined path.
In its last meeting, the US Central Bank agreed to keep interest rates steady, as the Federal Open Market Committee has raised the key interest rate 11 times since March 2022, reaching a target range of between 5.25 percent and 5.5 percent, which is the highest level in 22 years.
The meeting minutes noted that all participants agreed that policy should remain restrained for some time until the Fed's rate-setting committee becomes confident that inflation is moving sustainably lower toward its target.
The minutes also showed growing concern about the risks of raising interest rates too far and slowing economic activity to the point that it could cause companies to lay off large numbers of workers.
The economy's steady performance, despite strong interest rate increases over the past 19 months, has kept unemployment low even as inflation has declined from the peak seen in mid-2022, Fed officials said.
The debate in the markets is now about whether prices (inflation) will continue to fall without any further increases in interest rates, or whether more restrictive monetary policy is needed.
Since the September meeting, markets have ruled out the possibility of raising interest rates again. After the minutes were released, they gave only a 9 percent probability of raising interest rates at the next meeting scheduled from October 31 to November 1. And about a 28 percent chance at the December meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
