Cryptocurrency markets and Bitcoin investors are eagerly awaiting the results of the US presidential election and the upcoming interest rate decision this week. Amid sharp fluctuations that have recently shaken Bitcoin and pushed it below the $70,000 level, experts expect the election results to have a significant impact on the market, especially with the contrasting positions of candidates Trump and Harris on cryptocurrencies.
Traders also have an appointment on Thursday with the US interest rate decision, which, although it has fallen to second place on the list of concerns, is of great importance in shaping the direction of Bitcoin prices and the cryptocurrency market in general in the coming months.
In this atmosphere of uncertainty, many analysts advise caution and adopting strict and balanced strategies to manage risks and not to be reckless and follow emotions.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $69,145, after a period of sharp volatility between $67,700 and $73,300 in late October. The volatility comes amid a narrowing of the poll gap between Trump and Harris. Trump’s probability of winning was 67% on October 30 according to a decentralized polling platform, but it has since corrected sharply to 56%.
Candidates' positions and their impact on the market
Donald Trump : Trump is the favorite of many crypto investors. He has pledged to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler if elected and to turn the United States into the crypto capital of the world. This shift in his stance reflects a strategic shift in his political rhetoric; in 2019, he called Bitcoin a scam. But now he has shown strong support for digital assets and is leveraging the support of the crypto community in his campaign.
Kamala Harris : Harris takes a more cautious approach, supporting a clear regulatory framework for the crypto industry without stifling its development. Despite the Democratic Party’s hardline stance on digital assets, Harris has not specifically targeted Bitcoin. This suggests that the Biden administration’s policies aimed at protecting investors could continue without imposing strict restrictions on Bitcoin.
The role of appointments in regulatory bodies and financial policies
Regulatory appointments and financial policies play a vital role in shaping the future of the cryptocurrency industry. Choosing the right people for leadership positions in regulatory bodies reflects how governments approach digital assets, whether through facilitation and innovation or through tightening and regulation.
The cryptocurrency industry is highly dependent on financial and regulatory policies, which can directly impact its growth and legitimacy among investors and institutions.
Regulatory appointments are expected to have a major impact on the cryptocurrency industry after the election.
The current SEC Chairman, Gary Gensler, has taken a hard-line approach to monitoring and regulating digital assets, and is known for his focus on protecting investors and ensuring compliance with financial laws. Many investors see him as a barrier to wider adoption of cryptocurrencies, due to his strict regulatory policies that put limits on innovation in the sector.
Donald Trump sees Gensler as a major obstacle to the development of the cryptocurrency industry, and has promised to fire him if he wins the election. Trump believes that changing the leadership of the committee will help create a more supportive environment for cryptocurrencies and encourage innovation in this field.
While Kamala Harris sees Gensler as doing his part effectively to protect investors, she supports his continued policies to ensure balanced regulation of digital assets.
According to Jacob Wilson, an economist at Morgan Stanley, Trump’s appointment of a new SEC chairman could open the door to easier listing of spot Bitcoin ETFs, boosting the digital asset’s legitimacy in the eyes of major financial institutions.
Potential Bitcoin Price Predictions After Elections
Some traders have predicted that Bitcoin could hit $100,000 if Trump wins. Bernstein analysts suggest that a Harris win could lead to a significant price pullback by the end of the year. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades expects Bitcoin to see at least a 10% move in either direction, depending on the election results.
Experts believe that a Trump victory will create greater optimism in the digital markets in the short term, especially with his promises to remove regulatory hurdles. In contrast, a Harris victory could stabilize the market in the long term with balanced regulatory policies. Standard Chartered analysts believe that the price of Bitcoin could reach $125,000 in the event of a Trump victory, while Deribit analysts expect the price to reach $80,000 by the end of November.
According to analyst Michael van de Poppe, a Trump victory could lead to a significant increase in liquidity in the digital markets. This would boost institutional investment in Bitcoin. Nathan Patrick, an analyst at ARK Invest, also pointed out that the expected support from the Trump administration could encourage US companies to adopt Bitcoin as part of their financial reserves.
In contrast, financial market analyst Chris Dunn believes that a Harris win could stabilize Bitcoin in the long term. However, he expects the transition period to be volatile due to the lack of clarity on future regulatory policies. Timothy Peters of Bloomberg noted that the market could react positively to a Harris win if her policies include a balanced regulatory framework that reassures investors.
Interest rate decision and its expected impact
In addition to the election, investors are also awaiting the interest rate decision expected on November 7. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, according to analysts’ expectations. Riskier financial assets, such as stocks and cryptocurrencies, typically benefit from lower interest rates, as demand for them increases as borrowing costs fall.
Last September, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, with an additional 25 basis point cut expected in November. This expansionary monetary policy provides a favorable environment for the growth of both Bitcoin and stocks, regardless of the election results.
Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, noted that continued interest rate cuts could be the biggest boost to Bitcoin’s growth in 2025, regardless of who wins the election. He added that the Fed’s policy will remain the most important factor affecting investor sentiment in financial markets.
Trader Tips and Bitcoin Price Action Predictions This Week
Given the current volatility, analysts are advising traders to be cautious and adopt balanced trading strategies. Jonathan Smith, an analyst at Crypto Insights, points out the importance of monitoring Bitcoin’s key support and resistance levels, with $70,000 as a crucial resistance. Alex Jones, a trader at Blockchain Capital, also recommends staying away from day trading and focusing on swing trading during this period, given the expected high volatility.
Experts advise spreading risk and investing in diversified assets to avoid the negative effects of large price fluctuations. Michael Rogers, of Digital Asset Research, points out that the current period calls for the use of hedging strategies such as short trades to reduce risks. He also believes that traders can take advantage of large price movements by using stop-loss orders to ensure that potential losses are minimized.
Elliot Wilson, a veteran trader at CryptoTraders Pro, also stresses the importance of not getting carried away by emotions during these critical times. He points out that the market may see unexpected movements due to various political and economic factors, including election results and interest rate decisions. He recommends that investors stay up to date with economic news and market updates, and use data analysis tools to support their decisions.
On the other hand, Sam Harris, an analyst at Bitwise Asset Management, points out that price movements this week could be heavily influenced by political and economic news. Therefore, it is preferable to avoid high-leverage trades to reduce risks amidst the prevailing uncertainty. He also advises traders to take advantage of relatively quiet periods to re-evaluate and adjust their strategies in line with new developments.
Finally, experts advise caution and not to rush into making investment decisions, especially in light of the current situation characterized by uncertainty and high volatility. Success in this environment requires a cautious strategy and strict and balanced management that combines technical and fundamental analysis, with flexibility in adapting to economic and political developments.
