Gold is currently trading at $4,008.65 per ounce (XAU/USD), up $13.02 (+0.33%) from Friday's close (around $3,995.63), after dipping below $4,000 in early Asian trading and touching a low near $3,977.95 before recovering to that psychological level. Today's gold news comes amid falling oil prices, declining Treasury yields, and a slightly weaker dollar, ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday.

According to morning prices, silver fell 0.11% to $53.888 (the gold-to-silver ratio is approximately 74.4), West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 1.96% to $101.25, and Brent crude declined 1.50% to $110.03 on Investing.com (the December contract is trading near $114.50, according to Reuters). The 10-year yield fell 2.1 basis points to 4.965%, and the 2-year yield to 4.671%. The dollar index slipped 0.10% to 101.548. Wall Street futures opened slightly higher ( Dow +0.30%, S&P +0.16%, and Nasdaq 100 +0.01%), with the fear index falling to 19.38. Gold is still about 28.4% below its January peak (5,595.46), after ending last week with a 4.08% loss in our calculations, its worst since June.

Gold news today

Gold rebounded above $4,000 as oil prices declined, a development that had weighed on the precious metal last week when inflation and interest rate expectations were raised. Observers attribute the oil price drop in part to President Donald Trump's statement on Sunday that the United States would not strike Iran that day, and to a new round of Qatari mediation efforts, according to Reuters. Profit-taking also contributed to the decline after Brent crude rose 6% last week. However, Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova argues that the pullback reflects position balancing and risk management rather than a genuine improvement in supply. This suggests that the rebound is conditional and could be reversed by any renewed escalation.

Traders are focused on the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday, October 28, at 9:00 PM Saudi time, and the September PCE data and GDP figures on Thursday, amid pricing in a hold for October and an upward move for December between 76% and 81%, depending on the instrument. Investment banks maintain a bullish outlook for 2027 ($5,000-$5,400), with the $4,000 level considered a crossroads: UBS believes structural buyers of the dips will establish a floor there, Société Générale sees $3,960-$3,940 as the lower end of the range, while Bank of America expects an average of $4,000 for the fourth quarter with a potential bottom at $3,750.

Technical analysis: The downward trend remains in place.

WarrenAI's daily analysis (Monday, 9:57 AM, price 4,006.78) indicates that gold is in a clear downtrend after breaking the 4,000-4,100 range and is testing nearby support. The analysis gives an 80% probability of further declines towards 3,944-3,976 first, then 3,875, as the price is below its moving averages. The MACD is negative at -65.82, below the signal line (-54.99), the RSI is at 33.28 (weak but not oversold), and the ADX is at 26.14, with the negative indicator (29.71) outweighing the positive indicator (10.55). The price is also below the 20-day exponential moving average at 4,121.66.

The 20% retracement scenario requires a daily close above 4,066 first, followed by a break above 4,225, which is the upper limit of the descending channel formed since the August 25th peak at 4,697.66 (its lower limit is at 3,944-3,976). The current candlestick shows a bullish Haramie cross pattern near support, but this is uncertain before today's close, and a close below 3,975.64 would significantly weaken it. The scenario plan aligns with this reading: a confirmed sell below 3,975.64 with a stop loss at 4,040 and targets at 3,875 and then 3,800, or an aggressive buy at 4,000 with a stop loss at 4,075; and a buy after a close above 4,225 with a stop loss at 4,170 and targets at 4,320 and then 4,500. Our calculations show risk-reward ratios of 1.56 and 2.73 for a confirmed sell order, and 1.73 and 5.0 for a buy order, which are identical to the advertised figures. These are educational scenarios, not investment advice.

What is driving gold today?

Gold is currently fluctuating between three factors: oil (its rebound puts downward pressure on gold, while its decline supports it), Treasury yields and the dollar (their decline ahead of the Fed meeting provides support), and positioning (the unwinding of the overbought positions that dominated last week). Therefore, the daily close is more important than the intraday movement: a close below 3,975.64 confirms a resumption of the downtrend, while a close above 4,066 opens the door to a conditional rebound.

What we monitor

Traders are awaiting Monday's closing session between 3,975.64 and 4,066, any new official US or Iranian statement on the agreement or strikes, the 10-year yield near 4.95%, then the earnings of major companies during the week, the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday (9:00 PM), PCE and GDP data on Thursday (3:30 PM), and then the weekly closing on Friday.

Daily Summary

Gold is holding above $4,000 near $4,008 as oil prices decline and yields fall ahead of the Fed meeting, but WarrenAI projects an 80% probability of further declines towards $3,944-$3,976 and then $3,875, unless the price closes above $4,066 and then $4,225. The key level today is $3,975.64: below it, the decline is confirmed, and above it, a rebound remains conditional.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the price of gold now? Around $4,008.65 per ounce (+0.33%) on Monday morning, October 26, 2026.

Why did gold rebound today? With oil and Treasury yields falling ahead of the Fed's decision, after hitting a low near 3,977.95 at the start of Asian trading.

What are the most important gold levels? Support at 3,975.64, then 3,944 and 3,875, and resistance at 4,066 and then 4,225.

When will the Federal Reserve make its decision? Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 9:00 PM Saudi time.