The euro is trying to recover, and all eyes are on Christine Lagarde.

The euro rose in European markets on Monday against a basket of global currencies, attempting to recover from a two-week low against the US dollar, with buying activity from lower levels, benefiting from a pause in the rise of the US currency ahead of the release of key US inflation data.

Amid continued doubts about the prospects of a European interest rate cut in December, investors are awaiting a key speech later today from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, which is expected to provide new clues about the path of monetary policy easing in the Eurozone.

Price overview
Euro exchange rate today: The euro rose against the dollar by 0.15% to ($1.1528), from today’s opening price of ($1.1511), and recorded a low of ($1.1502).

The euro ended Friday's trading down 0.15% against the dollar, its sixth consecutive daily loss, hitting a two-week low of $1.1491, due to weak data on industrial and commercial activity in Europe.

The euro lost 0.95% against the dollar last week, its first weekly loss in three weeks and its biggest weekly loss since late July, as investors focused on buying the US currency as the best available investment.

US dollar
The dollar index fell 0.1% on Monday, giving up a six-month high of 100.40 points, reflecting the stalling of the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

Apart from profit-taking and corrective actions, the dollar is declining as investors refrain from building new buying positions, awaiting the release of key US inflation data, which is expected to provide strong clues about the likelihood of US interest rates remaining unchanged in December.

European interest rate
The money market's pricing of the likelihood of the European Central Bank cutting European interest rates by about 25 basis points in December is currently stable around 25%.

In order to reprice the above probabilities, investors are awaiting further economic data from the Eurozone on inflation, unemployment and wage levels.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will deliver an important speech later today at a forum, and the speech is expected to cover recent developments in inflation levels and the future of European interest rates.

Euro performance forecast
Here at FX News Today, we predict that if Lagarde's comments are less aggressive, the likelihood of a European interest rate cut in December will increase, putting further negative pressure on the euro's exchange rate against a basket of currencies.