The Saudi stock market's main index, TASI, rose during today's session to 10,583.67 points (+103.89 points, +0.99%) at 12:22 PM (late data), compared to Monday's close of 10,479.78 points. This surpassed Monday's high of 10,500 points and all five previous session closes (the highest being 10,505.84 on Sunday). While the three leading stocks – Al Rajhi, Al Ahli, and Aramco – are driving the gains, Luberef (Saudi Aramco Base Oils), the latest addition to ProPicksAI's TASI Stars strategy, stands out, having risen 6.13% since October 1st.
Leading stocks driving the rise
According to the latest data available from Investing.com at 10:20 and 11:30 AM:
Al Rajhi Bank: 63.70 riyals (+0.95%), which is the largest stock by weight in the index according to the figures for the third quarter report.
Al-Ahli Saudi: 39.10 riyals (+1.30%).
Saudi Aramco: 25.74 riyals (+0.70%), the second largest stock by weight.
“National Iron” (1325): 2.00 riyals (+9.89%) on its first day of trading, in very small quantities (about 12,000 shares).
Luberef: Record profits, rising stock, and still reasonably priced
Luberef (2223) stock was recently added to the TASI Stars strategy by ProPicks, and is trading at 131.60 riyals compared to 124.00 riyals on October 1, an increase of 6.13% over four sessions, compared to about 1.83% for TASI in the same period (from 10,392.97 to 10,583.67).
ProPicks AI’s machine learning engine selected Saudi Aramco Base Oils due to its rare combination of strong market gains, record profitability, and attractive valuation. The stock rose nearly 46% over the past year while trading at the time of the selection at a P/E ratio of just 16x and a PEG ratio of only 0.3, meaning investors are paying very little for its exceptional growth. And this growth is real: net income in the first half of 2026 jumped 113% to SAR 992 million (a company record), EBITDA soared by nearly 94%, and free cash flow exploded 346% to nearly SAR 1 billion. Analysts’ price targets of around SAR 149-150 suggest upside potential of 13%-14% from today’s price, while Bank of America recently selected Luberef as one of its top picks in the MENA oil and gas sector for late 2026.
What fueled the profit surge? The company attributed its second-quarter profit jump to SAR 734.1 million (+199%) to higher base oil cracking margins. It approved a cash dividend of SAR 4 per share (SAR 673 million) for the first half, payable on October 15.
The strategy outperforms TASI
The strategy's total return over 11 years of the benchmark study reached 619%, outperforming TASI by 594%. Five out of seven stocks rose, and four of them outperformed the index:
Al Sharq Pipes (1321): 182.50 Riyals (+6.79%).
Luberef (2223): 131.60 riyals (+6.13%).
Kingdom Holding (4280): 13.95 riyals (+4.10%).
Arab National Bank (1080): 23.04 Riyals (+1.90%).
Al Bahri (4030): 35.60 riyals (+0.06%).
Saudi Investment (1030): 12.00 riyals (-0.89%).
Petro Rabigh (2380): 17.30 riyals (-0.92%).
This is a short-term performance that does not necessarily reflect the strategy's performance over longer periods, and may change with different timings within the session.
Rebound after Monday's losses
Part of the gains offset yesterday's losses, which were concentrated in the banking sector. Al-Ahli closed yesterday down 2.77% (from 39.70 to around 38.60 riyals), and Al-Rajhi fell by about 1.5% (from 64.05 to around 63.10 riyals), according to calculations based on today's prices. Today, Al-Ahli recovered about 45% of its losses and Al-Rajhi about 63%, while Aramco continued its upward trend after rising by about 0.55% yesterday.
What supports the market?
Wall Street: The Nasdaq closed yesterday at a record high (27,477.31), and the S&P 500 is near its historic peak.
Dollar and yields: The dollar index (DX) fell to 101.80 points and the US 10-year yield to 5.274%, while gold rebounded to $4,155.
Oil: Brent near $100, with Aramco CEO Amin Nasser stating that Brent would have reached $200 were it not for the East-West pipeline, and the company announcing that it will publish its third-quarter results on November 3.
Local data: The Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 55.3 points in September, bank loans to the private and public sectors to SAR 3,574 billion (+7%) and consumer spending to SAR 142 billion (+6%) in August.
What are we monitoring?
Holding above 10,500 points: Resistance turns into support with a clear close, then 10,598.88 (close on September 24) and 10,681.84 (close on September 27).
Luberef: The stock continues to outperform with dividend payouts on October 15 and third-quarter results.
Globally: ADP and US trade balance data today, then the Fed minutes tomorrow, Wednesday, at 9:00 PM Saudi time.
Summary
The Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) jumped nearly 1%, supported by leading stocks and a more favorable global environment. Luberef stands out as the strongest newly added ProPicks Superstars stock: record earnings, a rising stock, and a valuation that remains reasonable according to our model. The next test will be the market's ability to hold above 10,500 points and the selected stocks' ability to maintain their outperformance.
