Gold prices saw little change on Thursday following a sharp sell-off in the previous session, as higher oil prices and better-than-expected US economic data kept expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike high.
At 9:03 AM Saudi time, XAU/USD fell 0.12% to $4,280.96 per ounce, while XAG/USD declined 0.2% to $63.9915. The US dollar index remained stable after rising for four consecutive sessions, nearing its highest level in two months. Higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar added further pressure on the precious metal.
Oil prices rose as tensions with Iran escalated and prospects for peace diminished.
Gold remains highly sensitive to Federal Reserve policy expectations, as investors assess whether high energy prices will keep inflation high enough to justify further interest rate hikes. Higher interest rates tend to put pressure on gold, which does not offer any yield.
Oil prices rose after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared before the United Nations that Iran would not allow free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as long as US sanctions and embargoes remained in place.
His remarks highlighted the difficulty of reaching a peace agreement with Washington despite renewed diplomatic efforts this week.
Pezeshkian stressed that Iran remains ready to negotiate but will not respond to threats, noting that Tehran is not seeking to acquire a nuclear weapon, while maintaining its right to develop nuclear technology for economic purposes.
This came a day after President Donald Trump said that US officials had very good talks with Iranian envoys on the sidelines of the UN summit.
Gold has fallen by about 20% since the outbreak of the US-Iran war in late February, with energy prices and Federal Reserve expectations remaining key drivers.
Strong US data and a sell-off in Treasury bonds are bolstering pressure for an interest rate hike.
The US Treasury bond market came under renewed pressure following better-than-expected economic data and a weak debt auction. These moves reflected growing expectations that inflation will remain entrenched, with yields across most maturities reaching their highest levels in nearly two decades.
The yield on five-year US Treasury bonds exceeded 5% for the first time since 2007, providing an additional headwind for the non-yielding metal.
US business activity also expanded at its fastest pace in more than five years. Federal Reserve President Michael Barr said further interest rate hikes are likely necessary to bring inflation back to the central bank's 2% target. His comments followed similar warnings from other policymakers that price pressures persist.
Swap markets are now pricing in at least three interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve by April of next year, up from expectations earlier this week.
Despite short-term pressures, gold remains supported by long-term demand considerations. However, stronger economic activity, higher yields, rising oil prices, and a stronger dollar are currently keeping the metal under pressure.
Resistance stifles the rise
Technical picture: The price is below the key averages, keeping sellers in a favorable position.
SMA(20): 4,360.29
SMA(50): 4,312.33
SMA(200): 4,544.79
SuperTrend: 4,344.75
ATR(14): 92.28 — Approximate daily range of motion is high.
These indicators are based on the last completed candle on 23/09/2026. The price remaining below 4,312–4,360 means that any current rise may be a correction, not a confirmed reversal.
Support is testing the market's patience.
The most important support lies near 4,241.41, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Additional support is also seen near 4,120.92, and then 3,959.38.
Holding above 4,241: leaves a chance for a bounce towards 4,312 and then 4,360.
Daily close below 4,241: confirms the break of the descending triangle, and opens the way towards 4,120.
Returning above 4,360: Relieves downward pressure.
A break above 4,544.79 would be a stronger signal of a change in the average trend.
The RSI indicator is at 44.63, according to the available reading, which means that momentum is weak but not in a clear oversold zone.
narrowing triangle
The pattern shown is a descending triangle between support near 4,240 and resistance near 4,400. The pattern is estimated to be about 80% complete, but the doji candle near 4,288.90 reflects hesitation, not a confirmed reversal signal.
Therefore, the 4,241–4,330 range is a relatively narrow oscillation band. Movement within it may produce false signals, especially with an ATR of 92.28.
Action scenarios
Practical summary
Current bias: Neutral with a slight downward bias as long as the price remains below 4,312–4,360. The 4,241 level is key for the upcoming sessions; defending it could produce a rebound, and breaking it with a daily close could accelerate the decline.
There is not enough technical evidence to consider the bounce a bullish reversal yet.
